After India reported a first case of coronavirus in January, the admissions of severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) and influenza like illnesses (ILI) cases under government’s health insurance scheme Ayushman Bharat have shown a flat graph in the last three months.
It provides evidence that the wider community transmission is yet to begin in India despite hotspots and clusters.
Ayushman Bharat data is one of several indicators such as sale of drugs for flu-type illnesses and reporting of such cases in OPDs, clinics and hospitals that the government is closely monitoring to see if there is a spike that suggests a wider Covid-19 transmission that has escaped notice.
In a step up of testing, ILI cases are being scanned for Covid-19, while the Ayushman numbers are also providing valuable information.
National Health Authority (NHA) data shows the number of SARI & ILI admissions in both public and private hospitals together increased by just 8.6% between January and February and thereafter declined in March by 5.4% and 12.9%, as compared to the previous two months.
The truth that there isn’t a vital surge in SARI and ILI hospitalisation signifies that there isn’t a large undercurrent of an outbreak. It relatively confirms that on a nationwide scale Covid-19 outbreak is restricted and never uncontrolled,” stated NITI Aayog member Dr V Ok Paul.
“The info doesn’t present any spurt and is supportive of the speculation that there isn’t a group transmission,” said Indu Bhushan, chief government of NHA.
Whereas SARI and ILI instances are a key indicator to find out whether or not there may be group transmission of Covid-19 in India, the flat curve and in reality a drop in such admissions in March could possibly be suggestive that there’s solely restricted native transmission in some areas with greater depth within the nation, senior authorities officers said.
In January, when authorities began preliminary screening for coronavirus, there have been 24,127 hospital admissions for SARI and ILI below the government-run medical insurance scheme.
After lockdown was imposed, the variety of hospitalisation dropped to 22,815 in March and three,024 in April to date.
The personal sector accounted for round two-third of the whole hospitalisation.
Based on Dr Paul, the shortage of development in SARI-related hospital admissions additionally reveals that almost all instances are gentle and due to this fact, didn’t require hospitalisation.
The health ministry has maintained there isn’t a proof of group transmission of Covid-19 to date.
