At a time when everyone is eagerly waiting for the COVID-19 pandemic to end, a study has found that it may pick up the pace with the fall in the temperature during peak monsoon and winter. The study, conducted jointly by researchers at IIT-Bhubaneswar and the AIIMS, showed that the disease can spread more when the temperature falls.
According to the study led by V Vinoj, Assistant Professor of the School of Earth, Ocean and Climatic Sciences at IIT-Bhubaneswar, ‘the rainfall, decrease in temperatures and cooling of the atmosphere coupled with progression towards winter may environmentally favour the spread of Covid-19 in the country.’
The report titled “COVID-19 spread in India and its dependence on temperature and relative humidity” took into account the pattern of the coronavirus outbreak and the number of such cases in 28 states between April and June.
The study revealed that the rise in temperatures leads to a decline in the transmission of the virus, Vinoj said.
“The study, which is in its pre-print stage, shows that the temperature and relative humidity have a significant impact on the disease growth rate and doubling time. It suggests that a one-degree-Celsius rise in temperature leads to a 0.99 per cent decrease in cases and increases the doubling time by 1.13 days, implying a slowdown of the virus spread,” he was quoted as saying by a news agency.
The study also found that an increase in relative humidity tends to decrease the growth rate and doubling time of coronavirus cases by 1.18 days.
The researchers, however, said since the study was not conducted during the period of high humidity starting from the monsoon and the onset of winter, more research needs to be undertaken to establish its exact impact.
“Several studies suggested that a fall in the temperatures and a relatively low humidity facilitated such an outbreak in the past,” said Dr Bijayini Behera of the department of Microbiology at AIIMS Bhubaneswar, who was part of the research team.
The objective of the study is to help authorities bring effective measures to combat the pandemic, Vinoj said.
